mRNA-based COVID-19 booster vaccination is highly effective and cost-effective in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Australia implemented an mRNA-based booster vaccination strategy against the COVID-19 Omicron variant in November 2021. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the booster strategy over 180 days. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model of COVID-19 to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy (administered 3 months after 2nd dose) in those aged ≥ 16 years, from a healthcare system perspective. The willingness-to-pay threshold was chosen as A$ 50,000. RESULTS: Compared with 2-doses of COVID-19 vaccines without a booster, Australia's booster strategy would incur an additional cost of A$0.88 billion but save A$1.28 billion in direct medical cost and gain 670 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in 180 days of its implementation. This suggested the booster strategy is cost-saving, corresponding to a benefit-cost ratio of 1.45 and a net monetary benefit of A$0.43 billion. The strategy would prevent 1.32 million new infections, 65,170 hospitalisations, 6,927 ICU admissions and 1,348 deaths from COVID-19 in 180 days. Further, a universal booster strategy of having all individuals vaccinated with the booster shot immediately once their eligibility is met would have resulted in a gain of 1,599 QALYs, a net monetary benefit of A$1.46 billion and a benefit-cost ratio of 1.95 in 180 days. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 booster strategy implemented in Australia is likely to be effective and cost-effective for the Omicron epidemic. Universal booster vaccination would have further improved its effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 reduced the incidence of infectious diseases: a controlled interrupted time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to suppress the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, few studies have evaluated the effect of NPIs on other infectious diseases and none has assessed the avoided disease burden associated with NPIs. We aimed to assess the effect of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and evaluate the health economic benefits related to the reduction in the incidence of infectious diseases. METHODS: Data on 10 notifiable infectious diseases across China during 2010-2020 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A two-stage controlled interrupted time-series design with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to examine the impact of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases. The analysis was first performed at the provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) level in China, then the PLAD-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 61,393,737 cases of 10 infectious diseases were identified. The implementation of NPIs was associated with 5.13 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.45‒7.42) avoided cases and USD 1.77 billion (95% CI 1.18‒2.57) avoided hospital expenditures in 2020. There were 4.52 million (95% CI 3.00‒6.63) avoided cases for children and adolescents, corresponding to 88.2% of total avoided cases. The top leading cause of avoided burden attributable to NPIs was influenza [avoided percentage (AP): 89.3%; 95% CI 84.5‒92.6]. Socioeconomic status and population density were effect modifiers. CONCLUSIONS: NPIs for COVID-19 could effectively control the prevalence of infectious diseases, with patterns of risk varying by socioeconomic status. These findings have important implications for informing targeted strategies to prevent infectious diseases.

mRNA-based COVID-19 booster vaccination is highly effective and cost-effective in Australia

Background Australia implemented an mRNA-based booster vaccination strategy against the COVID-19 Omicron variant in November 2021. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the booster strategy over 180 days. Methods We developed a decision-analytic Markov model of COVID-19 to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy (administered 3 months after 2nd dose) in those aged ≥16 years, from a healthcare system perspective. The willingness-to-pay threshold was chosen as A$ 50,000. Results Compared with 2-doses of COVID-19 vaccines without a booster, Australia's booster strategy would incur an additional cost of A$0.88 billion but save A$1.28 billion in direct medical cost and gain 670 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in 180 days of its implementation. This suggested the booster strategy is cost-saving, corresponding to a benefit-cost ratio of 1.45 and a net monetary benefit of A$0.43 billion. The strategy would prevent 1.32 million new infections, 65,170 hospitalisations, 6,927 ICU admissions and 1,348 deaths from COVID-19 in 180 days. Further, a universal booster strategy of having all individuals vaccinated with the booster shot immediately once their eligibility is met would have resulted in a gain of 1,599 QALYs, a net monetary benefit of A$1.46 billion and a benefit-cost ratio of 1.95 in 180 days. Conclusion The COVID-19 booster strategy implemented in Australia is likely to be effective and cost-effective for the Omicron epidemic. Universal booster vaccination would have further improved its effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Long-term impacts of non-occupational wildfire exposure on human health: A systematic review.

The intensity and frequency of wildfires is increasing globally. The systematic review of the current evidence on long-term impacts of non-occupational wildfire exposure on human health has not been performed yet. To provide a systematic review and identify potential knowledge gaps in the current evidence of long-term impacts of non-occupational exposure to wildfire smoke and/or wildfire impacts on human health. We conducted a systematic search of the literature via MEDLINE, Embase and Scopus from the database inception to July 05, 2022. References from the included studies and relevant reviews were also considered. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) and a validated quality assessment framework were used to evaluate the quality of observational studies. Study results were synthesized descriptively. A total of 36 studies were included in our systematic review. Most studies were from developed countries (11 in Australia, 9 in Canada, 7 in the United States). Studies predominantly focused on mental health (21 studies, 58.33%), while evidence on long-term impacts of wildfire exposure on health outcomes other than mental health is limited. Current evidence indicated that long-term impacts of non-occupational wildfire exposure were associated with mortality (COVID-19 mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality and acute myocardial disease mortality), morbidity (mainly respiratory diseases), mental health disorders (mainly posttraumatic stress disorder), shorter height of children, reduced lung function and poorer general health status. However, no significant associations were observed for long-term impacts of wildfire exposure on child mortality and respiratory hospitalizations. The population-based high-quality evidence with quantitative analysis on this topic is still limited. Future well-designed studies considering extensive wildfire smoke air pollutants (e.g., particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen oxides) and estimating risk coefficient values for extensive health outcomes (e.g., mortality, morbidity) are warranted to fill current knowledge gaps.

Long-term improvement of air quality associated with lung function benefits in Chinese young adults: A quasi-experiment cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with lung function impairment. However, whether long-term improvements in air quality could improve lung function is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To examine whether the reduction of long-term air pollution was associated with lung function improvement among Chinese young adults. METHODS: We conducted a prospective quasi-experiment cohort study with 1731 college students in Shandong, China from September 2019 to September 2020, covering COVID-19 lockdown period. Data on air pollution concentrations were obtained from China Environmental Monitoring Station. Lung function indicators included forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1st second (FEV1) and forced expiratory flow at 50 % of FVC (FEF50%). We used linear mixed-effects model to examine the associations between the change of air pollutants concentrations and the change of lung function, and additional adjustments for indoor air pollution (IAP) source. We also conducted stratified analysis by sex. RESULTS: Compared with 2019, the mean FVC, FEV1 and FEF50% were elevated by 414.4 ml, 321.5 ml, and 28.4 ml/s respectively in 2020. Every 5 µg/m3 decrease in annual average PM2.5 concentrations was associated with 36.0 ml [95 % confidence interval (CI):6.0, 66.0 ml], 46.1 ml (95 % CI:16.7, 75.5 ml), and 124.2 ml/s (95 % CI:69.5, 178.9 ml/s) increment in the FVC, FEV1, and FEF50%, respectively. Similar associations were found for PM10. The estimated impact was almost unchanged after adjusting for IAP source. There was no significant effect difference between males and females. CONCLUSION: Long-term improvement of air quality can improve lung function among young adults. Stricter policies on improving air quality are needed to protect human health.

Mortality burden due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 above the new WHO air quality guideline based on 296 cities in China.

OBJECTIVE: Quantifying the spatial and socioeconomic variation of mortality burden attributable to particulate matters with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) has important implications for pollution control policy. This study aims to examine the regional and socioeconomic disparities in the mortality burden attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 in China. METHODS: Using data of 296 cities across China from 2015 to 2019, we estimated all-cause mortality (people aged ≥ 16 years) attributable to the long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 above the new WHO air quality guideline (5 µg/m3). Attributed fraction (AF), attributed deaths (AD), attributed mortality rate (AMR) and total value of statistical life lost (VSL) by regional and socioeconomic levels were reported. RESULTS: Over the period of 2015-2019, 17.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.4-25.2] of all-cause mortality were attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5, corresponding to 1,425.2 thousand deaths (95% CI: 622.4-2,099.6), 103.5/105 (95% CI: 44.9-153.3) AMR, and 1006.9 billion USD (95% CI: 439.8-1483.4) total VSL per year. The AMR decreased from 120.5/105 (95% CI: 52.9-176.6) to 92.7/105 (95% CI:39.9-138.5) from 2015 to 2019. The highest mortality burden was observed in the north region (annual average AF = 24.2%, 95% CI: 10.8-35.1; annual average AMR = 137.0/105, 95% CI: 60.9-198.5). The highest AD and economic loss were observed in the east region (annual average AD = 390.0 thousand persons, 95% CI: 170.3-574.6; annual total VSL = 275.6 billion USD, 95% CI: 120.3-406.0). Highest AMR was in the cities with middle level of GDP per capita (PGDP)/urbanization. The majority of the top ten cities of AF, AMR and VSL were in high and middle PGDP/urbanization regions. CONCLUSION: There were significant regional and socioeconomic disparities in PM2.5 attributed mortality burden among Chinese cities, suggesting differential mitigation policies are required for different regions in China.

Inhibitory effects and mechanisms of the anti-covid-19 traditional Chinese prescription, Keguan-1, on acute lung injury.

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: Keguan-1, a new traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) prescription contained seven Chinese herbs, is developed to treat coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). The first internationally registered COVID-19 randomised clinical trial on integrated therapy demonstrated that Keguan-1 significantly reduced the incidence of ARDS and inhibited the severe progression of COVID-19. AIM OF THE STUDY: To investigate the protective mechanism of Keguan-1 on ARDS, a lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced acute lung injury (ALI) model was used to simulate the pathological state of ARDS in patients with COVID-19, focusing on its effect and mechanism on ALI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Mice were challenged with LPS (2 mg/kg) by intratracheal instillation (i.t.) and were orally administered Keguan-1 (low dose, 1.25 g/kg; medium dose, 2.5 g/kg; high dose, 5 g/kg) after 2 h. Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and lung tissue were collected 6 h and 24 h after i.t. administration of LPS. The levels of inflammatory factors tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1ß, keratinocyte-derived chemokine (KC or mCXCL1), macrophage inflammatory protein 2 (MIP2 or mCXCL2), angiotensin II (Ang II), and endothelial cell junction-associated proteins were analysed using ELISA or western blotting. RESULTS: Keguan-1 improved the survival rate, respiratory condition, and pathological lung injury; decreased the production of proinflammatory factors (TNF-α, IL-6, IL-1ß, KC, and MIP2) in BALF and the number of neutrophils in the lung tissues; and ameliorated inflammatory injury in the lung tissues of the mice with LPS-induced ALI. Keguan-1 also reduced the expression of Ang II and the adhesion molecule ICAM-1; increased tight junction proteins (JAM-1 and claudin-5) and VE-cadherin expression; and alleviated pulmonary vascular endothelial injury in LPS-induced ALI. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that Keguan-1 can improve LPS-induced ALI by reducing inflammation and pulmonary vascular endothelial injury, providing scientific support for the clinical treatment of patients with COVID-19. Moreover, it also provides a theoretical basis and technical support for the scientific use of TCMs in emerging infectious diseases.

The 2021 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia increasingly out on a limb.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017, and produced its first national assessment in 2018, its first annual update in 2019, and its second annual update in 2020. It examines indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. Our special report in 2020 focused on the unprecedented and catastrophic 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, highlighting indicators that explore the relationships between health, climate change and bushfires. For 2021, we return to reporting on the full suite of indicators across each of the five domains and have added some new indicators. We find that Australians are increasingly exposed to and vulnerable to excess heat and that this is already limiting our way of life, increasing the risk of heat stress during outdoor sports, and decreasing work productivity across a range of sectors. Other weather extremes are also on the rise, resulting in escalating social, economic and health impacts. Climate change disproportionately threatens Indigenous Australians' wellbeing in multiple and complex ways. In response to these threats, we find positive action at the individual, local, state and territory levels, with growing uptake of rooftop solar and electric vehicles, and the beginnings of appropriate adaptation planning. However, this is severely undermined by national policies and actions that are contrary and increasingly place Australia out on a limb. Australia has responded well to the COVID-19 public health crisis (while still emerging from the bushfire crisis that preceded it) and it now needs to respond to and prepare for the health crises resulting from climate change.

Mental health of new undergraduate students before and after COVID-19 in China.

The purpose of this study was to examine the changes in severity of anxiety and depression symptoms, stress and sleeping quality after three months of mass quarantine for COVID-19 among undergraduate fresh students compared to their pre-COVID-19 measures. We used participants from the Chinese Undergraduate Cohort (CUC), a national prospective longitudinal study to examine the changes in anxiety and depression symptoms severity, stress and sleep quality after being under mass quarantine for three months. Wilcoxon matched pair signed-rank test was used to compare the lifestyle indicators. Severity of anxiety, depression symptoms, stress and sleep quality were compared with Wilcoxon signed-rank test. We used generalized estimating equation (GEE) to further quantify the change in mental health indicators and sleep quality after the COVID-19 mass quarantine compared to baseline. This study found that there was no deterioration in mental health status among Chinese new undergraduate students in 2020 after COVID-19 mass quarantine compared with the baseline measures in 2019. There was an improvement in sleep quality and anxiety symptoms. After adjusting for age, sex, exercise habit, time spent on mobile gadgets, and time spent outdoors, year 2020 was significantly associated with severity of depression symptoms in males (OR:1.52. 95%CI:1.05-2.20, p-value = 0.027). Year 2020 was significantly associated with the improvement of sleeping quality in total (OR:0.45, 95%CI:0.38-0.52, p < 0.001) and in all the subgroups. This longitudinal study found no deterioration in mental health status among Chinese new undergraduate students after three months of mass quarantine for COVID-19.

Temperature-mortality association during and before the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: A nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify the associations of temperature with non-COVID-19 mortality and all-cause mortality in the pandemic 2020 in comparison with the non-COVID-19 period in Italy. METHODS: The data on 3,189,790 all-cause deaths (including 3,134,137 non-COVID-19 deaths) and meteorological conditions in 107 Italian provinces between February 1st and November 30th in each year of 2015-2020 were collected. We employed a time-stratified case-crossover study design combined with the distributed lag non-linear model to investigate the relationships of temperature with all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality in the pandemic and non-pandemic periods. RESULTS: Cold temperature exposure contributed higher risks for both all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality in the pandemic period in 2020 than in 2015-2019. However, no different change was found for the impacts of heat. The relative risk (RR) of non-COVID-19 deaths and all-cause mortality at extremely cold (2 °C) in comparison with the estimated minimum mortality temperature (19 °C) in 2020 were 1.63 (95% CI: 1.55-1.72) and 1.45 (95%CI: 1.31-1.61) respectively, which were higher than all-cause mortality risk in 2015-2019 with RR of 1.19 (95%CI: 1.17-1.21). CONCLUSION: Cold exposure indicated stronger impacts than high temperatures on all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality in the pandemic year 2020 compared to its counterpart period in 2015-2019 in Italy.

Health and related economic benefits associated with reduction in air pollution during COVID-19 outbreak in 367 cities in China.

Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government implemented nationwide traffic restrictions and self-quarantine measures from January 23 to April 8 (in Wuhan), 2020. We estimated how these measures impacted ambient air pollution and the subsequent consequences on health and the health-related economy in 367 Chinese cities. A random forests modeling was used to predict the business-as-usual air pollution concentrations in 2020, after adjusting for the impact of long-term trend and weather conditions. We calculated changes in mortality attributable to reductions in air pollution in early 2020 and health-related economic benefits based on the value of statistical life (VSL). Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, we estimated 1239 (95% CI: 844-1578) PM2.5-related deaths were avoided, as were 2777 (95% CI: 1565-3995) PM10-related deaths, 1587 (95% CI: 98-3104) CO-related deaths, 4711 (95% CI: 3649-5781) NO2-related deaths, 215 (95% CI: 116-314) O3-related deaths, and 1088 (95% CI: 774-1421) SO2-related deaths. Based on the reduction in deaths, economic benefits for in PM2.5, PM10, CO, NO2, O3, and SO2 were 1.22, 2.60, 1.36, 4.05, 0.20, and 0.95 billion USD, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the substantial benefits in human health and health-related costs due to improved urban air quality during the COVID lockdown period in China in early 2020.

Large-Scale Spraying of Roads with Water Contributes to, Rather Than Prevents, Air Pollution.

Spraying roads with water on a large scale in Chinese cities is one of the supplementary precaution or mitigation actions implemented to control severe air pollution events or heavy haze-fog events in which the mechanisms causing them are not yet fully understood. These air pollution events were usually characterized by higher air humidity. Therefore, there may be a link between this action and air pollution. In the present study, the impact of water spraying on the PM2.5 concentration and humidity in air was assessed by measuring chemical composition of the water, undertaking a simulated water spraying experiment, measuring residues and analyzing relevant data. We discovered that spraying large quantities of tap or river water on the roads leads to increased PM2.5 concentration and humidity, and that daily continuous spraying produces a cumulative effect on air pollution. Spraying the same amount of water produces greater increases in humidity and PM2.5 concentration during cool autumn and winter than during hot summer. Our results demonstrate that spraying roads with water increases, rather than decreases, the concentration of PM2.5 and thus is a new source of anthropogenic aerosol and air pollution. The higher vapor content and resultant humidity most likely create unfavorable meteorological conditions for the dispersion of air pollution in autumn and winter with low temperature.

Vulnerability and Burden of All-Cause Mortality Associated with Particulate Air Pollution during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Nationwide Observed Study in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence is available on the health effects of particulate matter (PM including PM2.5 with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm; PM10, ≤ 10 µm; PM2.5-10, 2.5-10 µm) during the pandemic of COVID-19 in Italy. The aims of the study were to examine the associations between all-cause mortality and PM in the pandemic period and compare them to the normal periods (2015-2019). METHODS: We collected daily data regarding all-cause mortality (stratified by age and gender), and PM concentrations for 107 Italian provinces from 1 January 2015 to 31 May 2020. A time-stratified case-cross design with the distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the association between PM and all-cause mortality. We also compared the counts and fractions of death attributable to PM in two periods. RESULTS: Italy saw an increase in daily death counts while slight decreases in PM concentrations in pandemic period. Each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM was associated with much higher increase in daily all-cause mortality during the pandemic period compared to the same months during 2015-2019 (increased mortality rate: 7.24% (95%CI: 4.84%, 9.70%) versus 1.69% (95%CI: 1.12%, 2.25%) for PM2.5; 3.45% (95%CI: 2.58%, 4.34%) versus 1.11% (95%CI: 0.79%, 1.42%) for PM10; 4.25% (95%CI: 2.99%, 5.52%) versus 1.76% (95%CI: 1.14%, 2.38%) for PM2.5-10). The counts and fractions of deaths attributable to PM were higher in 2020 for PM2.5 (attributable death counts: 20,062 versus 3927 per year in 2015-2019; attributable fractions: 10.2% versus 2.4%), PM10 (15,112 versus 3999; 7.7% versus 2.5%), and PM2.5-10 (7193 versus 2303; 3.7% versus 1.4%). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 pandemic increased the vulnerability and excess cases of all-cause mortality associated with short-term exposure to PM2.5, PM2.5-10, and PM10 in Italy, despite a decline in air pollution level.

Effects of New York's Executive Order on Face Mask Use on COVID-19 Infections and Mortality: A Modeling Study.

There is growing evidence on the effect of face mask use in controlling the spread of COVID-19. However, few studies have examined the effect of local face mask policies on the pandemic. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in New York City (NYC), which was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We used data on daily and cumulative COVID-19 infections and deaths from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to calibrate and validate our model. We then used the model to assess the effect of the executive order on face mask use on infections and deaths due to COVID-19 in NYC. Our results showed that the executive order on face mask use was estimated to avert 99,517 (95% CIs 72,723-126,312) COVID-19 infections and 7978 (5692-10,265) deaths in NYC. If the executive order was implemented 1 week earlier (on April 10), the averted infections and deaths would be 111,475 (81,593-141,356) and 9017 (6446-11,589), respectively. If the executive order was implemented 2 weeks earlier (on April 3 when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended face mask use), the averted infections and deaths would be 128,598 (94,373-162,824) and 10,515 (7540-13,489), respectively. Our study provides public health practitioners and policymakers with evidence on the importance of implementing face mask policies in local areas as early as possible to control the spread of COVID-19 and reduce mortality.

Projected COVID-19 epidemic in the United States in the context of the effectiveness of a potential vaccine and implications for social distancing and face mask use.

BACKGROUND: Multiple candidates of COVID-19 vaccines have entered Phase III clinical trials in the United States (US). There is growing optimism that social distancing restrictions and face mask requirements could be eased with widespread vaccine adoption soon. METHODS: We developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California). We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness and coverage required to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic in scenarios when social contact was to return to pre-pandemic levels and face mask use was reduced. Daily and cumulative COVID-19 infection and death cases from 26th January to 15th September 2020 were obtained from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus resource center and used for model calibration. RESULTS: Without a vaccine (scenario 1), the spread of COVID-19 could be suppressed in these states by maintaining strict social distancing measures and face mask use levels. But relaxing social distancing restrictions to the pre-pandemic level without changing the current face mask use would lead to a new COVID-19 outbreak, resulting in 0.8-4 million infections and 15,000-240,000 deaths across these four states over the next 12 months. Under this circumstance, introducing a vaccine (scenario 2) would partially offset this negative impact even if the vaccine effectiveness and coverage are relatively low. However, if face mask use is reduced by 50% (scenario 3), a vaccine that is only 50% effective (weak vaccine) would require coverage of 55-94% to suppress the epidemic in these states. A vaccine that is 80% effective (moderate vaccine) would only require 32-57% coverage to suppress the epidemic. In contrast, if face mask usage stops completely (scenario 4), a weak vaccine would not suppress the epidemic, and further major outbreaks would occur. A moderate vaccine with coverage of 48-78% or a strong vaccine (100% effective) with coverage of 33-58% would be required to suppress the epidemic. Delaying vaccination rollout for 1-2 months would not substantially alter the epidemic trend if the current non-pharmaceutical interventions are maintained. CONCLUSIONS: The degree to which the US population can relax social distancing restrictions and face mask use will depend greatly on the effectiveness and coverage of a potential COVID-19 vaccine if future epidemics are to be prevented. Only a highly effective vaccine will enable the US population to return to life as it was before the pandemic.

Can self-imposed prevention measures mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic?

Yuming Guo and colleagues discuss the research by Teslya et al that highlights the importance of personal preventative measures in avoiding a second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Exploring an Integrative Therapy for Treating COVID-19: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a new Chinese medicine (CM)-based drug and to evaluate its safety and effect for suppressing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: A putative ARDS-suppressing drug Keguan-1 was first developed and then evaluated by a randomized, controlled two-arm trial. The two arms of the trial consist of a control therapy (alpha interferon inhalation, 50 µg twice daily; and lopinavir/ritonavir, 400 and 100 mg twice daily, respectively) and a testing therapy (control therapy plus Keguan-1 19.4 g twice daily) by random number table at 1:1 ratio with 24 cases each group. After 2-week treatment, adverse events, time to fever resolution, ARDS development, and lung injury on newly diagnosed COVID-19 patients were assessed. RESULTS: An analysis of the data from the first 30 participants showed that the control arm and the testing arm did not exhibit any significant differences in terms of adverse events. Based on this result, the study was expanded to include a total of 48 participants (24 cases each arm). The results show that compared with the control arm, the testing arm exhibited a significant improvement in time to fever resolution (P=0.035), and a significant reduction in the development of ARDS (P=0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Keguan-1-based integrative therapy was safe and superior to the standard therapy in suppressing the development of ARDS in COVID-19 patients. (Trial registration No. NCT04251871 at www.clinicaltrials.gov ).

[Rapid establishment of traditional Chinese medicine prevention and treatment of 2019-nCoV based on clinical experience and molecular docking].

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) is raging in China and more than 20 other countries and regions since the middle of December 2019. Currently, there is no specific drug or vaccine besides symptomatic supportive therapy. Taking full advantage of the clinical experience of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) in preventing and controlling major epidemics such as SARS, it is an important mission for TCM to propose effective formula with immediate response and solid evidence by using modern biomedical knowledge and techniques(molecular docking assisted TCM formulation for short). In view of the high homology between the gene sequences of the novel coronavirus and SARS virus, and the similarities between the two in terms of pathogenic mechanism and clinical manifestations, our team established a rapid screening and optimization model for the prevention and treatment of the novel coronavirus based on clinical experience and molecular docking technology. Firstly, the clinical team and the research team pre-developed and screened TCM formula by using "back-to-back" manner. Then, the formula was optimized and determined by comparing and analyzing the results of the two groups. The results showed that the research team screened out 46 active ingredients from candidate TCMs that could act on the novel coronavirus S-protein-binding site of human ACE2 protein, which were mainly attributed to 7 herbs such as Lonicerae Japonicae Flos and Mori Folium. The result was largely consistent with the formula raised by the clinical group, verifying and supporting its rationality. This provides evidence for the scientific and potential efficacy of the TCM prescription from the perspective of treatment target analysis, and also suggests that the TCM prescription has the potential to directly inhibit viral infection in addition to improving clinical symptoms or syndromes. Based on this, our team optimized and formed a new anti-coronavirus TCM prescription "Keguan Yihao", immediately providing the TCM prescription with certain clinical experience and objective evidence support for the prevention and treatment of new emergent infectious diseases in our hospital. The TCM prescription was combined with modern medicine symptomatic supportive treatment for clinical treatment, preliminary results showed better effect than symptomatic supportive therapy alone. This research has innovated the method mode in clinical practice and basic research integration of traditional Chinese medicine for the prevention and control of new emerging infectious diseases. It is of great significance to further improve the rapid response mechanism of TCM in face of major epidemics, and further improve the capability level of TCM to prevent and treat new emerging infectious diseases.